A new season is upon us
So this will be a yearly Premier League review for the start of the season. These are our expectations, our analysis backed by data, but like anything in life there are no guarantees.
It’s like a educated guess with the data that is available. With that said let’s run through it and how the season looks with out data’s perspective.
So our data is based from our Process Model. This model breaks the game down into 4 main sections of football in the Premier League, defense, possession, chance creation and shooting. We use these sections as they are good indicators of how teams win games as well as strengths and weaknesses of each team.
The process model has proven the most effective of my models mainly because of the number of metrics that feed into it. While it is fairly granular, it tends to be more accurate in regards to making data driven decisions. It’s also very good at highlighting problems and particular recruitment needs.
Premier League Title Hopes
There is no real surprise in the names that the model throws up in the hunt for the Premier League title. Obviously, Liverpool and Arsenal are clear favourites for the title and it’s not even close, the top 4 has become a top 2. Liverpool and Arsenal have both recruited really well and in different ways.
Liverpool have recruited absolute quality when it comes to chance creation and shooting. Both Wirtz and Ekitike are future stars, once Wirtz gets settled there isn’t much that will stop that attack. Liverpool have focussed so heavily on attack that even the full backs they bought have added to the attack value.
Arsenal on the other hand have filled out the depth of their squad with high performing players. Some of them may seem a bit odd like Norgaard, Madueke and Mosquera, but they are there to fill a role. Arteta said it himself that the injuries the got last season affected them badly, and this is their way to combat that.
Premier League European Spots
Now this is where things are changing in the Premier League, Newcastle, Man City, Chelsea, and (drum roll please)…………Man United. That is a strong group of teams, but to see Man United to be predicted up there is interesting to say the least.
Newcastle United
Let’s start with Newcastle, I am a big fan of the way they play and they are definitely going to be in the mix. I can see them winning the title in the next couple of years. The problem that has occurred though is that their top striker Isak wants to leave. This causes a problem and really hampers their shooting ability, meaning less goals and we saw that in the first game.
Man City
Next up is Man City. I have no idea what has happened to City, last season they lost their heads and didn’t recover. While they have recruited well with Cherki, Ait-Nouri and Reijnders, there is definitely something missing. While they are great at possession and creating chances, they aren’t doing well at getting the shots off.
Chelsea
Chelsea, the Club World Cup winners! I never thought they would win, but really well done to them. The main strength to this team is that midfield trio of Palmer, Enzo and Caicedo. It is one of the best midfields in the world right now, and they are young too. They also have a future superstar in Estevao, he is going to be good.
Man United
Last, but not least is the newly formed Man United. The newly recruited attack looks to give United the edge they have needed with Cunha, Mbeumo and Sesko. United last season were pretty good defensively and in possession, but they struggled to create chances outside of Fernandes and couldn’t get the shots away to score.
Premier League Midtable
This is the tough part, the teams which make up the Europa leagues and the midtable positions. It’s where a lot of teams get stuck with good home forma and bad away form. It can be the launch pad to getting into the top places, but also every team below you is hot on your trail.
Nottingham Forest
The overachieving team of last season in the Premier League. Overall Forest are a nicely balanced team going into this season, but they have one key factor that stands out. They are very physical and win a lot of the duels that come their way. This alone will get them a midtable position.
Tottenham Hotspur
Where to start with Spurs? Last year was a season of extremes, coming near the relegation zone, but winning a European trophy. Scoring like a top four team, but conceding like a relegation based team. Thomas Frank is in now and if he can bring his ideas from Brentford with him, they could be doing big things.
Fulham
Fulham are an interesting team, they play good football in possession and creating chances, but they struggle to compete for the ball and don’t get many shots away. They are an enigma and in footballing terms they play in the middle and don’t go forward or back.
Bournemouth
So this is one of the more exciting teams in the league last season in the Premier League. Unfortunately, they have been raided over the summer and they players they have brought in are not the same standard yet. The main strength that they have is creating chances which is a big reason why they win matches.
Leeds United
Leeds have been busy, recruiting some excellent players. The problem I envisage is that they have had so much change, so it depends on how well they adapt. Leeds look to be a very physical team who are good in possession. In the final third they are definitely lacking in terms of creativity and shooting.
Relegation Candidates
These are the teams that are in trouble at the moment, but with some good performances and some good recruitment decisions it could turn around. Some of these teams are a surprise, but someone has to occupy these positions.
West Ham
My love in football, but unfortunately I have to face facts, good in possession, good at duelling, but poor going forward. A couple of good attacking players would remedy this to a certain extent but the board say there is no money. It’s going to be a long season.
Sunderland
While newly promoted teams tend to struggle, Sunderland have put a lot of effort into the transfer market. Sunderland seem to be a fairly balanced team, not being great at anything in particular. Sunderland understand they are in a scrap, but they are trying their best to survive.
Wolves
Not a real surprise to see Wolves down here, after the last few seasons of selling their best players. Each season they tend to start with the manager who saved them last year and then sacking them in the new season as it doesn’t go well. Interesting to see how they get out of this.
Everton
Really surprised to see these guys down, new stadium, surviving last year after all the drama. Unfortunately over the summer they haven’t really recruited anyone yet and have let a lot of players go. Moyes has mentioned that he wants a lot of signings, so hopefully they get on with that and make them happen to help his cause.
Burnley
So Burnley look to be the team which comes up to go back down. There is always one team that gets predicted bottom and I hope they prove people wrong. They’ve got Jaidon Anthony who I am a big fan of, so he will stay up even if Burnley don’t.
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