Build a foundation for a successful club
This is the start of a series of blogs on my ideas of how to start with Premier League, this addition is Luton Town. I am a big fan of the underdogs and looking forward to seeing what we can do.
Really excited about this one guys, Luton Town are the underdogs in the Premier League. We are going to turn their fortunes around and create a foundation for them to launch from. Hopefully it will go well and we will post follow up blogs of January and end of season after this.
Let’s get down to business, read on to see our views of starting with Luton Town.
Board Expectation with Luton Town
So the first thing to address is the board expectations. Unsurprising the board want to avoid relegation from the Premier League. In terms of culture, there are a few interesting twists that I didn’t expect.
The style that is desired by the club is attacking possession football. This is interesting because that is the style a lot of the top sides in the world play. I think we need to delve further into how the team can play, rather than how the board want to play.
Making the most of set pieces is an obvious one for any team that is trying to survive in the premier league. It is also one of the four pillars that Sam Allardyce incorporates into his teams. We will be focusing heavily into set pieces as your can grab a few points from them alone.
Developing young players and buying players under 22 is the club identity. As the club has a low income due to a small ground and fan base, the club would like to make an income through developing young players and become a selling club. So upgrading the youth coaches, training facilities and scouts for identifying young players is important.
Assessing the Luton Town squad
The next step to building the team on day one is to look at the squad and the assistant reports. Now there are two ways in my mind to do this on day one, one is to sort by current ability and one is to sort by potential ability. I’ve sorted this one by potential ability due to synergy with the club expectations.
After a quick analysis we have a number of options. The defence is an easy one, either a flat 4 or 5 at the back. The midfield is the most interesting, my head is saying 2x dm and AMC, AML, AMR. The other is to go with 2x MC and AMC, AML and AMR, which is the option I am leaning towards due to the roles available and including our best players.
The forwards are not as interesting, we have three, 2 pressing forwards which are good in a pressing game (obviously), and a target man. None of them really stand out, but I am tempted to go with a pressing forward. So without further ado, this is what I have created.
So time for some reasoning. I went with the 4-2-3-1 Wide, the personnel available made it more stable. We have a solid central midfield, which should protect the back line, but not so much that we sacrifice two players to DM to screen them.
Four at the back is the best option, I believe due to the same reasons as above. I did not want to commit five at the back and sacrifice any chance in goal threat. One forward will need support and five in midfield will help us create opportunities, create better passing patterns and lend a hand to the defence.
Tactical Choices for Luton Town
I will get the easier ones out the way to start with. I have kept a standard backline due to Burke, the rest of the back four are very pacey. Burke unfortunately lets the side down on the that front, and as a result we need to stick with a standard line.
When selecting a standard line, I tend to follow a pattern that my width and passing range will be the same. This works well and helps us build a team from the back. This means that if I have a deep line, our width will be narrow and passing will be short. That will create a defensive, hard to break down, possession hoarding team.
Our pressing with Luton Town is high because we have a very fast team. This will then cause the opposition defence to be caught out or boot it long where our ball winners and box to box will be waiting.
Our attack is focussed around working the ball into the box. It’s a risk strategy as we will not get a lot of chances due to the poor passing quality of a lot of our players. With working the ball in the box, we get quality chances and high expected goals.
Other considerations
Looking at the data from real life, last year, it was unusual. Two relegated teams scored more than 43 scores, which normally is the safety mark. Plus there were a number of teams on less then 40 points.
We have a number of problems here, as there new players everywhere and they came from the Championship. Additionally, we need more data to prepare for that, calculating a Championship goals at 0.7 means that Woodrow could score 14 goals this year.
Also when looking at data in how matches are won, that is how we can start to create the team. The more chances that are created and shots taken, means there is more chance in winning (obvious). The team with the most possession wins 54% of the time, and the team that runs the most wins 60%. When we use this data to recruit, we will hopefully help us build a winning team.
Conclusion
I am very much looking forward to playing with Luton Town. They are the underdog from the Championship in terms of fan base and stadium size. They remind me of past teams like Wigan and Swansea, teams which had to think outside the box.
I will continue to post these Day One guides with each team in the Premier League and then do a January update and an end of season update. It will be nice to get feedback if this helps anyone, or even if there is something else you would like to see.
I hope this guide helps you, please leave a comment regarding any of the topics discussed today.
