New Season, New Hope
So it’s fair to say last season for West Ham was disappointing in the EPL.
It started badly with Lopetegui and ended just as bad with Potter. We had hope after Moyes but it was dealt with badly and has made Moyes look like a world class manager.
Anyway, let’s dig in and see the West Ham team.
West Ham fans won’t like this, but we have been awful since Moyes left.
The point of this article is to look at the current team, it’s strengths and weaknesses and get an understanding of what is happening. Currently it looks bleak, but I feel after a deep dive into some numbers it will make more sense.
The way that we do this is through a model that measures 4 aspects of football (duelling, possession, chances, shots). These aspects give us a good view of different phases of tactical play and an understanding of how we win games.
Each area is supported by a number of metric which I have identified as essential for that phase. Then we use those metrics to build a picture of what is to come and how we can use it.
West Ham Squad Overview
Overall the best player in the team is either Jarrod Bowen or Aaron Wan-Bissaka, no surprises there.
When looking at the top 10 outfield players, it makes an interesting picture. 6 of our top performing players are defenders, 3 are midfielders and 1 is a forward. This is far too defense heavy and is understandable why we play 343/523 in old money. As a result our defensive output and possession stats are above average in the league.
Looking at chance creation and shots we are in trouble. When looking at shooting our output is less than half of the league average, and people wonder why we don’t score goals.
When you look at the chance creation for the team we are running at about 60% of the league average. This is the league average I am comparing it to, the top teams do far more with and without the ball.
You can understand that Potter is leaning into the strengths of the team, but by playing defensive football we will eventually be eroded.
West Ham Defence
I’m going to start with a controversial statement, based on my model Areola is better than Mads Hermansen. There you I’ve said it, make of it what you will and I’m sure there will be some rotation over the season anyway.
Moving onto the defenders, if we insist on playing in a 5, Wan-Bissaka, Kilman, Mavropanos, Walker-Peters, Aguerd are our best 5. Diouf is a difficult one to pick out, but obviously you want to play him. The surprise he is that Todibo actually isn’t good enough to get in the first team.
West Ham Midfield
Paqueta is our best midfielder and it’s not even close at the moment. Even during the case against him by the FA over the last couple of years he has played pretty in terms of possession. Where he struggles is in the final third with shooting or creating.
The next best midfielder is joint between both Ward-Prowse and Soucek, and their stats profiles are pretty much identical. Both are central midfield, their possession record is okay, their duelling record is okay, but there defenders with better shooting records.
The next midfielder in the team is Rodriguez. This surprised me because actually think he hasn’t lived up to the hype. He is non-existent in the shooting and creation which indicates a deeper role, but has similar possession and duelling profiles to Ward-Prowse and Soucek.
The Attack
Mr West Ham himself, Jarrod Bowen. It is an absolute pleasure to have him at West Ham, and without him I dread to think where we would have ended up. One of the two best players in the team and our main goal output. Bowen is unique in the fact he is our best creator and best scorer.
The next best striker in the team is Fullkrug. It’s a little unfortunate that he was injured as long as he was in the last season because we needed goals and as result his stats could have been better.
Fullkrug would play the role as our goal scorer, the focal point of our attack. He isn’t known for creating and plays in the advanced role to get his chances.
Recommended Signings
So a quick disclaimer here, these players are drafted with a certain criteria which suits the team. It is also data driven only, so would require scouting, personality testing, video scouted etc.
Let’s take a look at the short list.
Dogucan Haspolat (Westerlo)
While we do not need another midfielder, Dogucan clearly out performs the midfield in defensive attributes and also possession. This makes him invaluable in the build up play and flexibility in a deep role or central midfield role.
Hans Vanaken (Club Brugge)
If Paqueta was to leave, we would need a player to come in and do the same role behind the forwards. Not only does Vanaken do that role, he also does it more efficiently across his creation and shooting.
Alan (Moreirense)
Swapping one Brazilian for another one. Alan is an attacking midfielder with the flair to create, not much of a shooter, but he wouldn’t the average down. Alan is your typical attacking mid who wants to thread the ball through to your forwards. He takes pleasure through the assists.
Tobias Lauritsen (Sparta)
A little known striker who scores 1 in 3, potentially nothing more than a rotation to the squad who could break into the first team. It would give depth to the forwards though and some competition. He is a good solid striker, but a budget option so low risk.
Guus Til (PSV)
This guy has been on my radar for a while now. He is like a second striker, attacking midfield role, but has scored in a third of his matches. This is really promising when looking at how to get more potential goal scorers in the team. He would increase the attacking metrics in the team significantly.
Zuriko Davitashvili (St Etienne)
Davitashvili is somehow still at St Etienne. Despite being relegated he had a fantastic season and I thought he would have been snapped up straight away. While he is a winger he is really creative and would give us that wide player to become a threat, imagine him on the left and Bowen on the right. He is also only 24, so the best is yet to come.
Matthis Abline (Nantes)
While his stats will not blow you away yet, he is 22 and already scored 9 in a top league in one season. When running an age/talent curve he is ahead of the curve. While he will not be a world beater he is a definite option going forward and would grow with the club from relegation survival to Europe.
Conclusion
All of this information is indicating we could easily set up in a 442 diamond, like Argentina of the 1960’s/70’s. This would play to our strengths of solid defensive football, as well as helping our possession progression enabling short passes and control.
As well as this we are reducing the number of defensive players and adding another striker. This will take the pressure off the defence and give us something to attack with resulting in more goals for West Ham.
Either way, there is hope, but we cannot keep playing in the fashion that we are.
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