Who’s winning the league?
So these are our EPL predicted league using our PER (Player Efficiency Rating) model. While I doubt that it will be 100% accurate, it will be interesting to see hoe the model fares with important positions.
Let’s see how it looks!
So first things first, what is the PER model and how accurate is it?
Well first and foremost, the PER model (Player Efficiency Model) is a based on a correlation data frame highlighting a number of key performance indicators in football. It then strings a number of key supporting metrics to give me an idea of how efficient a player is.
I appreciate that there is some stiff opposition to data analysts, but we are all here to help. Yes we get it wrong, but who doesn’t? Data is there to help you make a true and accurate decisions.
So how does this help the EPL predicted league?
Well this is a chunk up data model, meaning that it takes detailed or granular data and builds larger chunks of data. This means we take players and build their metrics into each team to give us a team strength value. This then goes into a calculation with home and away modifiers. As easy as that!
EPL Predicted League
So this is the EPL predicted table that I have been speaking about. Obviously these predictions are based on metrics and have no bearing on future events.
| Team | Position |
| Arsenal | 1st |
| Liverpool | 2nd |
| Manchester City | 3rd |
| Chelsea | 4th |
| Manchester Utd | 5th |
| Newcastle Utd | 6th |
| Brighton | 7th |
| Fulham | 8th |
| Sunderland | 9th |
| Tottenham | 10th |
| Aston Villa | 11th |
| Bournemouth | 12th |
| Leeds Utd | 13th |
| Crystal Palace | 14th |
| Brentford | 15th |
| Wolves | 16th |
| West Ham Utd | 17th |
| Nottingham Forest | 18th |
| Everton | 19th |
| Burnley | 20th |
So there are some surprises here! Arsenal to win the league will make North London happy, and probably a year later than it should have been. Even so, if it does happen it will prove it is worth sticking by a manager.
The next observation is Man Utd are 5th! When I ran this before the Sesko transfers United were 8th-10th. This is an indication of how important goals are in winning a title or getting a higher position in the league.
The next point is questionable, Sunderland and Leeds not only stay up, but they snag 9th and 13th in the league. I find this hard to believe due to the frequency newly promoted teams go back down. If they do stay up, that would be great.
As for the teams at the bottom end of the table, I have no arguments other than Nottingham Forest. I cannot see Forest being relegated this season. While I appreciate it’s their first season in Europe for a long time, I can’t see them struggling so much that they relegated.
24/25 Comparison
So looking at last season’s table we can see the top four are still to be predicted the top 4. While the order has changed, it is the some teams that have made up the top 4. Arsenal will win the league according to the model, this could be the year he does it!
So there has been a few changes in the Europa section of the league according to PER model. Man Utd will leapfrog into 5th in the league, which if correct shows how important it is to create chances and score goals. Newcastle drop down to 6th, which could be factored into the whole Isak drama.
Aston Villa and Forest drop out of this section of the table. They have be replaced with Fulham and Brighton, both of which have been on the up in recent years.
In the next group in the predicted league table we have a number of interesting teams to have a look at. Brentford are a team that I expect will bounce back and have a good season, but it is a transition. They have lost a number of good players and their manager, so by the time season is finished it will be a different team.
The big shock in this group is Sunderland are 9th?! Which blew my mind when the model suggested this. I can’t see them reaching these dizzy, but if they do, it will definitely a story to tell the kids.
Relegation
Nottingham Forest, Everton and Burnley will be going down according to the EPL predicted league. Again I find this hard to believe as Nottingham Forest have been brilliant in the last year.
Everton have a new stadium, which the surely can’t get relegated in. Burnley are the favourites to go down which is no real surprise to anyone, unfortunately someone has to go down.
Conclusion
So there we have it, the EPL predicted league table. I will revisit this to see at the end of the season how it looks. Also the window isn’t closed just yet, so there is time for plenty of change still. I feel that this model is fairly accurate, but there are some glaring errors such as Forest getting relegated and Leeds/Sunderland coming midtable.
I am really looking forward to seeing how this season pans out. There have been a lot of changes in the last year, players and managers included. Thomas Frank is at Spurs now, which was a major move and I can see the benefits for Spurs.
Who do you predict will win the league this year?
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