Introduction
After analysing data from the last couple of seasons across FPL, The Sun Dream Team, and Telegraph Fantasy Football, I’ve discovered that success isn’t luck — it’s built on repeatable DNA. Welcome to Fantasy Football Winning DNA!
Let’s build our new strategy based on these principles and see what it brings us.
What Is Fantasy Football DNA?
So I have decided to change tact across my fantasy football games. We’ve been doing well, but I want to do do better. As a result I’ve been doing some analysis over the last couple of seasons and building a criteria for my strategy going forward. This is why I have built the Fantasy Football Winning DNA.
I found that creative players are the most valuable in the game. The way in which I have done this is seeing the correlation between value and groups metrics.
Why value you say? Why not points? Well if I used points I would basically end up with the players already have the points in my team. This means I would have missed the boat gaining the points and paid top whack for the privilege. This is why I choose to look at value of players instead, to see what drives the top performers.
The 10 Essential Building Blocks of Fantasy Football DNA
I have been talking about it enough, now it is time to show you how it works. The Fantasy Football Winning DNA is the strategy that I am taking forward, combined with the model I have a good feeling about this season.
Let’s have a look at the ten points of the strategy.
1. Creative Engine
When I was analysing the data the players that held the most value and performed the best were the creative players. There are a number of reasons for this, this the metrics that stood out were xA, key passes, progressives passes and chances created. These players are going to make up the bulk of our team.
Last season’s heroes were – Bakwa (Forest), Salah (Liverpool), Simons (Spurs), Cherki (Man City), Pino (Palace), Fernandes (United), Wirtz (Liverpool), Palmer (Chelsea), Uche (Palace), Saka (Arsenal).
This season so far – Grealish (Everton), Salah (Liverpool), Gibbs-White (Forest), Doku (Man City), Mbeumo (Man United), Kudus (Spurs), Gakpo (Liverpool), Hudson-Odoi (Forest), Ndoye (Forest), Neto (Chelsea).
I appreciate some of these players were playing in foreign leagues but I have converted their stats as though they were playing in the Premier League.
2. Minutes
The next big thing in the Fantasy Football winning DNA is playing time, it’s obvious really the more time a player plays the more opportunities he gets.
Most Fantasy Football games offer bonuses for starting and playing at least 60 minutes and that plays into your points total per week.
You will find the players that play the most, or consistently tend to be defenders and goal keepers, which means you can settle on a good defence early.
3. Fixtures
Fixtures re important, do not listen to your friend who tells you they aren’t. I use a team strength scoring system over 5 fixtures to dictate which teams have the easiest fixtures available. I then rearrange my team as necessary after looking at those scores.
4. Set Pieces & Penalties
This is an obvious one, picking set pieces takers and penalty takers is going to give you higher xG opportunities. xG obviously transfers into goals, and while they do not account for a lot of points it can be the difference.
5. Defensive Ratings
So like any Premier League champion, you cannot rely on just goal scoring, you need balance. In all fantasy football games now we are seeing defensive points, and some are very important. I have put together a nubmer of choices for FPL, Sun Dream Team and TFF.
FPL – Senesi (Bournemouth), Van Dijk (Liverpool), Andersen (Fulham), Richards (Palace) , Lacroix (Palace), Tarkowski (Everton), Keane (Everton), Esteve (Burnley), van Hecke (Brighton), and Gabriel (Arsenal).
Sun Dream Team – Caicedo (Chelsea), Mitchell (Palace), Garner (Everton), Gomes (Wolves), Longstaff (Leeds).
TFF – Mitchell (Palace), Longstaff (Leeds), Gomes (Wolves), Timber (Arsenal), Palhinha (Spurs).
6. Value per Million
This is actually a really important part of the Fantasy Football Winning DNA as it is easily misunderstood. You could easily spend your time working out the players points by millions, but we work differently.
Remember we calculated how many points you need to win each Fantasy football game?
Well we work it backwards, so for example we need 2810 points in a season to win TFF. That equals 74 points per week and we have 50 million to spend, which means we need to spend 675k per point with each player. This means Haaland is valued at £8.3m and he needs to score 12 points per week.
This then asks the question, do we need Haaland or can we rebuild him in the aggregate? Technically 74 points a week would be 6.7 points a player, which is easier for any player to reach.
7. Captaincy
While captaincy doesn’t apply to TFF, it is important to The Sun Dream Team and FPL. Over the years we have had a number of captains, but this year seems like you have to captain Haaland. He is on form and you cannot afford to lose out on those points.
If you are looking for alternative captains Alex Vollo on twitter always has some interesting options.
8. Differentials
Now this is where the tipsters make their money. Differentials are what you need to win your mini league, you are fighting for the very inches to beat your opponents.
Differentials are low ownership players, which outperform the market. This is a bit like money ball as it means you using unfashionable players.
9. Injury and Rotation Discipline
This is more of a discipline than a criteria of the Fantasy Football Winning DNA strategy.
Please do not jump too early when you hear about a injury, or a press conference where the manager is potentially resting a player. Leave it to as close to the deadline as possible, as you may find yourself eating through transfers.
10. Data Driven Decisions
This is probably obvious by now, but whenever you think about transferring a player out, ask yourself why? And the same as transferring one in, why? What is the reason?
If you can’t think of a reason then don’t do it. Have a plan which is backed by solid reasoning.
The Best Formation: Why 3-5-2 Wins More
The 352 formation is by far the optimal choice and the reason fro that is because when I did my analysis most Premier League were kitted out to play that formation. We did this by stripping each squad down to their best 10 players plus goal keeper.
Once we did this the majority of teams were set up in a 352 formation and that gave me an idea. It means that we have plenty of choices in each position.
It is also proven that it is easier to get a better valued midfielder than it is forward. You are still getting defensive points, without sacrificing too many attacking positions.
Final Thoughts
I hope you have enjoyed this change in direction in my strategy and I hope it helps you. With this solid approach and the model that I have been building I am very confident in this season.
I will reassess the strategy in another ten games to see if it is performing well and if it is out performing our previous strategy.
Want more winning Sun Dream Team tips in real time?
Join me on Twitter @mkfootballgr8 for weekly team updates, live reactions, and insider strategies to help you smash your league. Don’t just play—Make Football Great.
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